Rabobank Seasonal Outlook for Australia

Rabobank Australia and New Zealand Agribusiness Review  July 2008

·         June was an extremely dry month for Australia , particularly in many key cropping regions, with the eastern wheat belt and south western WA experiencing drier than normal conditions. However, northern and central Australia experienced average to higher than average rainfalls.

·         According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the national outlook for total rainfall over the July to September period shows a shift in the odds, favouring drier than average conditions over a broad band from north west WA to south eastern Australia. The chance of exceeding median rainfall in western Victoria, SA and south western NSW has deteriorated to 25 – 40%. The rest of Australia currently has a probability of exceeding median rainfall at 45 – 55%, with areas of northern NSW and south western WA looking at a 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall.

·         The La Niña conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2007 and early 2008 have all but disappeared. However, SOI conditions are expected to remain neutral until the end of 2008.

The Benefits of Extended Lactation

Country News 14 July 2008

Research scientists from DPI and the University of Melbourne are currently studying the benefits of extended  lactation periods in dairy cows. Extended lactation is lactation that lasts longer than 300 days. As noted in Country News a recent seminar discussed the initial findings of the study:

·         Over 90% of cows demonstrated they could comfortably milk for 16 months.

·         Once a cows' lactation went over 16 months, there was a distinct indication that not all cows were capable of milking for 22 months.

·         Energy partitioning has a direct bearing on the extension of a cow's lactation period. Milk production can be increased if the priority shift of nutrient supply supports lactation.   

·         The Holstein Fresian is more suited to an extended lactation period than other Fresian breeds due to its energy partitioning mix – it will use its energy for milk production while lactating and for body condition when dry.

·         In some cases, where herd fertility is an issue an extended lactation system could be beneficial.

Milk Supplies Getting Short

Weekly Times/Felicity Lunghusen  9 July 2008

Dairy Australia ’s latest figures show the value of dairy exports between July 2007 and May 2008 was up 12% to AU$2.6 billion, reports the Weekly Times. However, the amount of dairy products exported fell by 17% compared with the same period last year. Michael Harvey, Dairy Australia analyst, predicts a slowdown in US production after recent floods which means Australia ’s dairy export boom looks set to keep rising. Supply is short and international demand is strong: butter exports are worth AU$116 million, a 14% increase, yet volume dropped 21%; cheddar exports rose to AU$382 million, a 16% increase, but volume is down 6%.

Approved Doha Agreement by End of Week?

just-food.com/Keith Nuthall  11 July 2008

A further draft agreement for the food liberalisation Doha Development Round will be presented to trade ministers on 21 July 2008 reports just-food.com. This commences the week long negotiations intended to finalise the seven year long discussions. The agreement is expected to be approved by the World Trade Organisation (“WTO”) Trade Negotiations Committee at the end of the week. Pascal Lamy, WTO Director said: “We must not let this opportunity slip through our fingers. Officials and diplomats in Geneva have produced a draft text highlighting a small number of simple but politically tricky decisions that must be made by ministers, who will represent all the major trading nations of the world. For food, the key choice will be balancing curs in import duties and production subsidies.”

Full story:

http://www.just-food.com/article.aspx?ID=103066&lk=dm

German Dairy Farmers Protest with Milk Parcels

BBC News  8 July 2008

Angry German dairy farmers have sent over 1,900 milk parcels to the European Commission in protest over the 2% increase in milk quotas announced in April. Further, the commission last week rejected demands for financial support of up to EU300 million, to offset the low prices. EU Commissioner for Agriculture, Mariann Fischer Boel said “I can assure you that we take your concerns seriously. If you want to continue sending milk, then I can imagine it would be better to give it to a good cause in your local area” reports BBC News. The milk parcels were destroyed, with officials stating “as we don't know if the milk has been kept under the right conditions between the farmer and the Commission, so we can't take the risk of giving it to anybody.” The farmers have also lobbied for subsidies on diesel taxes.

Full story:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7495181.stm

New Zealand FTA with China Provides Opt-Out for Dairy?

The Independent/Nick Smith  11 July 2008

New Zealand ’s free trade agreement (“FTA”) with China could contain hidden clauses which could potentially damage New Zealand ’s tourism, construction, and dairy manufacturing industries reports The Independent. Fonterra has commented that while the FTA is intended to allow access to the Chinese market, it includes an opt-out clause. If China can show that Fonterra poses a threat to its dairy industry, it can delay tariff reductions for up to a year. However, according to a Fonterra spokeswomen this “presents only a very small risk”, and is limited to milk powders reports The Independent. She said in the report: “Chinese dairy imports from New Zealand make up around 2% of China 's entire dairy consumption. It’s unlikely that [a] case could or would be made for New Zealand imports damaging the Chinese dairy industry.”

Full story:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4615476a13.html