November 10, 2014 — USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released November 10, raised the milk production forecast for 2014 from last month as growth in milk per cow has increased. However, for 2015, the production forecast was lowered as the expansion in cow numbers and growth in milk per cow are expected to be more moderate.
• 2014 production and marketings were projected at 206.2 billion lbs. and 205.2 billion lbs., respectively. Both are up 100 million lbs. from last month’s projections. If realized, 2014 production and marketings would be up 2.5% from 2013.
• 2015 production and marketings were projected at 212.3 billion lbs. and 211.3 billion lbs., respectively, both are down 500 million lbs. from a month ago. If realized, 2015 production and marketings would be up about 3.0% from 2014.
Export forecasts for 2014 and 2015 were lowered as U.S. dairy products, especially on a skim solids basis, remain less competitive in world markets.
Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were raised for 2014, reflecting current price movements, but the price forecasts for 2015 are lowered as domestic supplies are expected to be relatively large. Butter prices are reduced for both 2014 and 2015 based on prices to date and weaker expected exports. Whey prices are unchanged from last month.
The Class III price for 2014 was raised on stronger cheese prices, but weaker cheese prices in 2015 result in a lower expected Class III price. The Class IV price was lowered for 2014 as lower butter prices more than offset a higher NDM price. For 2015 both butter and NDM prices will be weaker, resulting in a lower Class IV price forecast. The all milk price was raised to $24.15 to $24.25 per cwt for 2014, but was lowered for 2015 to $18.85 to $19.75 per cwt.
Dairy price forecasts
Product 2013 2014 2015
Class III ($/cwt) 17.99 22.50-22.60 17.15-18.05
Class IV ($/cwt) 19.05 22.05-22.25 17.05-18.05
All milk ($/cwt) 20.05 24.15-24.25 18.85-19.75
Cheese ($/lb.) 1.7683 2.1700-2.1800 1.6900-1.7800
Butter ($/lb.) 1.5451 2.1200-2.1500 1.6600-1.7800
NFDM ($/lb.) 1.7066 1.7700-1.7900 1.4100-1.4800
Dry whey (¢/lb.) 0.5902 0.6500-0.6600 0.5600-0.5900
WASDE Crop Update
U.S. feed grain production for 2014/15 was lowered this month as lower corn, barley, and oats output more than offset a small increase for sorghum. Corn production is forecast 68 million bushels lower, but still a record at 14,407 million bushels. The national average corn yield is reduced 0.8 bushels per acre to 173.4 bushels.
U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is projected slightly higher with a 5-million-bushel increase in expected food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use. Corn used in ethanol production is projected 25 million bushels higher with a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol and the strong pace of weekly ethanol production reported so far for the marketing year. Mostly offsetting this increase is a 20-
million-bushel reduction in other food and industrial use. Projected corn ending stocks are lowered 73 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average farm corn price is raised 10 cents on each end to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1.6 million tons higher as the U.S. reduction is more than offset by higher foreign output. Foreign corn production is raised 1.4 million tons with increases for EU, Ukraine, and Mexico more than offsetting reductions for China and Kenya.
World mixed grain production is raised 1.3 million tons with an increase for EU on higher reported area and yields, mostly in Poland and Germany. World barley output is raised 0.6 million tons with increases for EU and Algeria more than offsetting small reductions for Kazakhstan and the United States.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is lowered 1.1 million tons. Corn use is lowered for China, but raised for EU, Ukraine, and Mexico. Barley feed use is raised for China, but lowered for Ukraine. Sorghum use is raised for Mexico and China. Corn imports are lowered for EU, China, and Japan, but raised for Iran and South Korea. Corn exports are lowered for Argentina and Brazil, but raised for Ukraine. Barley and sorghum imports are raised for China. Barley exports are raised for Canada and Ukraine. World corn ending stocks are projected 0.9 million tons higher with the U.S. reduction more than offset by increases for Mexico, Brazil, Ukraine, China, and Argentina.
U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month on increased soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 3,958 million bushels, up 31 million on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at a record 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels mainly on gains for Iowa and South Dakota.
Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1 percent above the October forecast. U.S. soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 20 million bushels to 1,720 million reflecting the record pace of export sales through late October.
Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,780 million mostly due to increased soybean meal exports. Domestic soybean meal consumption is reduced slightly in line with changes in the 2013/14 balance sheet. Soybean
ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.
Soybean and soybean product prices for 2014/15 are unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel. Soybean meal and soybean oil prices are projected at $330 to $370 per short ton and 34 to 38 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 528.9 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Higher soybean and rapeseed production are only partly offset by a lower sunflowerseed forecast. Global soybean production is projected at a record 312.1 million tons reflecting the increase for the United States. Global rapeseed production is raised to 70.7 million tons on a record EU harvest.
Gains for EU are partly offset by a reduction for Australia where dry conditions in the southeast have reduced yield prospects. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 39.8 million on lower forecasts for Russia and
Kazakhstan which are partly offset by gains for EU and Serbia. Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for China and Australia.
Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 134.6 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from the United States and Ukraine and increased rapeseed exports from Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed crush is projected higher mainly on gains for soybeans in the United States, China, Ukraine, and South Korea. Partly offsetting is a reduction in soybean crush for Argentina. Rapeseed crush is raised for EU and China. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected lower at 103.0 million tons on reduced rapeseed stocks in Canada and Australia.
Read the complete WASDE at: