June 18, 2013 — FC Stone dairy economist Bill Brooks recaps the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that was released last week.

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June 5, 2013 — June Dairy Month starts with a nice 93-cent increase in the May Federal order Class III benchmark milk price, announced this afternoon by USDA at $18.52 per hundredweight (cwt.). It is $3.29 above May 2012, equates to about $1.59 per gallon, and is $1.32 above the comparable California 4b cheese milk price despite the temporary price increase mandated by the California Department of Food and Agriculture, which ends with the May prices. The 2013 Class III price average now stands at $17.69, up from $15.96 at this time a year ago, $16.65 in 2011, and $13.57 in 2010.  

May 10, 2013 — USDA’s World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released May 10, kept projected 2013 milk production estimates steady from a month earlier, and provided first estimates of 2014 production.

• 2013 production and marketings were projected at 201.8 billion lbs. and 200.8 billion lbs., respectively. If realized, 2013 production and marketings would be up about 0.7% from 2012.

• 2014 production and marketings were projected at 204.6 billion lbs. and 203.7 billion lbs., respectively. If realized, 2014 production and marketings would be up about 1.4% from 2013. Lower feed costs and relatively strong milk prices are expected to support production into 2014.

The 2013 all-milk price is forecast at $19.50-$20.00/cwt. The all-milk price is forecast at $18.85-$19.85/cwt. for 2014.

Feed prices: On the cost side of the dairy equation, the 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.30-$5.10/bushel, down sharply from the record $6.70-$7.10/bushel average for 2012/13. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013/14 is forecast at $9.50-$11.50/bushel, compared with $14.30/bushel in 2012/13. Soybean meal is forecast at $280-$320/ton in 2013/14, compared to $425/ton in 2012/13.

mAY 10, 2013 — California’s June Class 1 milk price is $20.84/cwt. for the North and $21.12/cwt. for the South, up $1.45 and $1.46, respectively, from May. The June 2013 prices are $4.03 and $4.04 more than June 2012, respectively, and they’re the highest since December 2012.

Through the first six months of 2013, Class 1 prices averaged $19.85/cwt. for the North, up from $17.83/cwt. (+$2.02) for the same period a year ago. The South average, at $20.13/cwt., is up from $18.10/cwt. (+$2.03) a year ago.
The federal order June Class I base price will be announced May 22.

May 1, 2013 — Farm milk prices are heading back up. The Agriculture Department announced the April Federal order Class III benchmark price this afternoon at $17.59 per hundredweight (cwt.), up 66 cents from March, $1.87 above April 2012, and the highest April Class III price since 2004. It equates to about $1.51 per gallon and lifts the 2013 Class III average to $17.48, up from $16.14 at this time a year ago, $16.69 in 2011, and $13.62 in 2010.

The April Class IV price is $18.10, up 35 cents from March and $3.30 above a year ago. Its 2013 average now stands at $17.81,up from $15.66 a year ago, $18.50 in 2011, and $13.35 in 2010.

The AMS-surveyed cheese price averaged $1.7310 per pound, up 8.4 cents from March. Butter averaged $1.6766, up 6.2 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.5312, up a penny, and dry whey averaged 57.41 cents, down 3.1cents.

Courtesy the Mielke Market Weekly

April 5, 2013 — Farm milk prices have slipped a little more but have likely bottomed out for 2013. The Agriculture Department announced the March Federal order Class III manufacturing grade milk price on April 3rd, at $16.93 per hundredweight (cwt.), down 32 cents from February but $1.21 above March 2012, $1.91 above California’s 4b cheese milk price, even with the state’s temporary price increase, and equates to about $1.46 per gallon. The March Class IV price is $17.75, unchanged from February and $2.40 above a year ago.

Looking ahead, the April Class III futures contract settled Wednesday at $17.42; May, $18.40; June, $19.40; and peaked at $19.46 in July and August. The 2013 Class III average now stands at $17.44, up from $16.28 at this time a year ago, and compares to $16.63 in 2011 and $13.85 in 2010. The 2013 Class IV average now stands at $17.71, up from $15.94 a year ago, and compares to $18.08 in 2011 and $13.22 in 2010.

The AMS-surveyed cheese price averaged $1.6467 per pound in March, down 1.6 cents from February. Butter averaged $1.6146, up 7.1 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.5208, down 3.5 cents, and dry whey averaged 60.48 cents, down 3.2 cents from February.

Courtesy of Mielke Market Weekly

NASS Suspends Certain Statistical Estimates and Reports Due to Sequestration

Issued March 12, 2013 by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. For information contact Sue King at (202) 690-8122.

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is suspending a number of statistical surveys and reports for the remainder of the fiscal year due to reduced funding caused by sequestration. Before deciding upon the program suspensions, NASS reviewed its survey programs against mission- and user-based criteria as well as the amount of time remaining in the fiscal year to conduct the surveys with the goal of finding available cost savings and maintaining the strongest data in service to agriculture. The decision to suspend these reports was not made lightly, but it was nevertheless necessary, given the funding situation.

All Catfish and Trout Reports including Catfish Feed Deliveries and Catfish Processing
July Cattle Report
Potato Stocks Reports
All Non-Citrus Fruit, Nut and Vegetable Forecasts and Estimates
June Rice Stocks Report
All Hops and Hops Stocks Estimates
Mink Report
Milk Production Reports including Production, Disposition and Income
June on- and off-farm stocks for Austrian Winter Peas, Chickpeas, Dry Peas and Lentils
July acreage forecasts for Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas and Lentils

March 1, 2013 — California’s comparable 4b cheese milk price is $15.41 per cwt., down 43 cents from January, $1.99 above a year ago, but $1.84 below the FO Class III price, even with the temporary price boast just approved by CDFA. Its two month average now stands at $15.63, down from $15.85 a year ago and $17.19 in 2011.

The 4a butter-powder price is $18.01, up 93 cents from January and $2.50 above a year ago. Its two month average is $17.55, up from 13.83 in 2912 and compares to $14.71 in 2011.

California’s April Class I prices are scheduled to be announced on Friday, March 8.

Courtesy of Mielke Market Weekly

February 27, 2013 — Farm gate milk prices fell again. The Agriculture Department announced the February Federal order benchmark Class III price this afternoon at $17.25 per hundredweight, down 89 cents from January but still $1.19 above February 2012 and equates to about $1.48 per gallon. The two-month average now stands at $17.70, down from $16.56 a year ago and $15.24 in 2011.

Class III futures show more fall to come. The March contract settled Wednesday at $17.05. April settled at $17.10; May, $17.35; June, $17.65; July, $18.10; August, $18.32; with a peak for the year at $18.40 in September.

The Class IV price is $17.75, up 12 cents from January and $1.83 above a year ago.

The AMS-surveyed cheese price averaged $1.6623 per pound, down 8.6 cents from January. Butter averaged $1.5438, up 3.7 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.5559, down slightly, and dry whey averaged 63.93 cents, down 1.1 cent.

California’s comparable 4b cheese milk and 4b butter powder prices are scheduled to be announced by the California Department of Food and Agriculture on Friday.

Courtesy the Mielke Market Weekly