Archive for the ‘Government Reports’ Category

Cheese Price Strength Good and Bad

USDAJanuary 9, 2014 – USDA’s Dairy Market News (DMN) reports that cheese price increases through this Wednesday “show extraordinarily robust strength,” and is “both good news and bad news, depending on who is opining.”  Good for manufacturers with strong recent sales and bad for manufacturers with recent sales less robust than anticipated.”

“This week some manufacturers have not received the volume of cheese orders by midweek that they anticipated when scheduling weekly production. Opinions as to factors vary – some related to current high cheese prices and others to extremely cold weather. Yet other manufacturers report selling extra loads last week into this week, with inquiries for extra loads into next week as well.  One factor believed to be mitigating higher prices and weather, is this being the first full work week of the year for many buyers,” says DMN.

Latest Dairy Products Report: More Cheese, Less Butter

January 3, 2014 — November 2013 U.S. milk production was only up 0.3% compared to a year ago, so that translated into small increases in cheese output, a small decline in butter, and sizeable drop in powder production for the month, according to USDA’s monthly Dairy Products report, issued today. November 2013 dairy product output, compared to November 2012 and year-to-date (Y-T-D) estimates included:

Total cheese: 940.66 million lbs., up 2.9%; Y-T-D 10.18 billion lbs., up 2.5%.

Total Italian cheese: 414.52 million lbs., up 7.8%; Y-T-D 4.38 billion lbs., up 3.6%.

Mozzarella: 320.01 million lbs., up 7.6%; Y-T-D 3.398 billion lbs., up 3.4%.

• American cheese: 354.55 million lbs., down 2.7%; Y-T-D 4.05 billion lbs., up 1.8%.

Cheddar: 250.35 million lbs., down 3.4%; Y-T-D 2.92 billion lbs., up 2.0%.

• Butter: 142.76 million lbs., down 0.1%; Y-T-D 1.71 billion lbs., up 1.2%.

Dry milk powders – Nonfat dry milk, human, 100.13 million lbs., down 13.6%,

Y-T-D 1.36 million lbs., down 15.6%; and skim milk powders, 56.39 million lbs., up
26.1%, Y-T-D 572.69 million lbs., up 67.2%.

Dry whey (total): 75.08 million lbs., up 3.1%; Y-T-D 852.47 million lbs., down 6.3%.

Yogurt: 324.41 million lbs., up 4.4%; Y-T-D 4.27 billion lbs., up 5.2%.

December Class III Gains 12 Cents

USDAJanuary 2, 2014 — The December Federal order benchmark milk price is $18.95 per hundredweight (cwt.), up 12 cents from November, 29 cents above December 2012, 92 cents above California’s comparable 4b price, and equates to about $1.63 per gallon. The 2013 Class III average is $17.99, up from $17.44 in 2012, $18.37 in 2011, and $14.41 in 2010.  

The December Class IV price is $21.54, up $1.02 from November and $3.71 above a year ago. Its 2013 average is $19.05, up from $16.01 a year ago, 19.04 in 2011, and $15.09 in 2010. 

The January 2014 Class III futures contract settled today at $19.66; February, $19.12; March, $18.54; April, $18.17; May, $18.00; and June at $17.83. 

The AMS-surveyed U.S. average cheese price used in calculating this month’s FO prices was $1.8761 per pound, up 1.5 cents from November. Butter averaged $1.6308, up 11 cents, nonfat dry milk $1.9537, up 6.5 cents, and dry whey averaged 57.06 cents, down 1.3 cents.

November milk production up just 0.3%

USDADecember 20, 2013 — November milk production totaled 15 billion lbs. in the top 23 producing states, up just 0.3% from November 2012, according to preliminary data in today’s USDA Milk Production report. That’s against November 2012 output being up 1.3% from November 2011. November 2013 output in the 50 states totaled 16 billion lbs., up 0.1%. Revisions added 27 million lbs. to the original October estimate, now put at 15.4 billion lbs., up 1.4% from a year ago.

November cow numbers totaled 8.5 million head, down 4,000 from October but 22,000 more than a year ago. Output per cow averaged 1,762 lbs., up just 1 lb. from November 2012.

California production was up 0.6% from a year ago, despite a 30 lb. drop in output per cow. Cow numbers were up 5,000 head. Wisconsin was down 0.6% on a loss of 10 lbs. per cow, though cow numbers were unchanged. New York was up 2.1%, thanks to a 35 lb. per cow increase. Cow numbers were unchanged. Idaho was down 1.8%, on a 10 lb. drop per cow and 8,000 fewer cows. Pennsylvania off 0.2%, on 3,000 fewer cows but output per cow was up 5 lbs., and Minnesota was off 1.9%, due to a 30 lb. drop per cow. Cow numbers were unchanged.

The biggest gain was in Kansas, up 7.5%, followed by Utah, up 5.8%. The biggest decline, and there were several, was in Missouri, down 5.5%, followed by Illinois, down 2.5%.

Other states of interest; Michigan was up 0.5%, despite a 20 lb. loss per cow but cow numbers were up 6,000 head. New Mexico was down 0.8%, due to a 10 lb. loss per cow and 1,000 fewer cows. Texas keeps climbing, up 2.4%, thanks to 10,000 more cows though output per cow was unchanged. Washington State was up 1.8% on a 15 lb. per cow increase and 3,000 more cows.

January, 2014 Class I milk price jumps $1.11

USDADecember 18, 2013 — The Agriculture Department announced the January, 2014 Federal order Class I base milk price this afternoon at $21.48 per cwt., up $1.11 from December 2013, $2.51 above January 2013, and equates to about $1.85/gal.

The two-week AMS-surveyed butter price average used in calculating the Class I value was $1.6406/lb., up 24.9¢ from December. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.9423, up 5.7¢. Cheese averaged $1.8583, down 1.9¢, and dry whey averaged 56.69¢/lb., down 0.8¢.

Dairy Industry Welcomes FDA’s New Antibiotics Regulations

December 16, 2013 — Last Wednesday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration finalized Guidance Number 213 establishing the procedures for voluntarily phasing out growth promotion indications for medically important antibiotics in alignment with Guidance Number 209 and published proposed changes to the Veterinary Feed Directive regulation. We spoke with Dr. Roger Saltman, a veterinarian with Zoetis Cattle Technical Services to find out what this means for the dairy industry.


Federal Order Benchmark Milk Price Up 61 Cents

December 4, 2013 — The November Federal order Class III benchmark milk price was announced this afternoon by USDA at $18.83 per hundredweight (cwt.), up 61¢ from October, $2 below USDANovember 2012, and the highest it has been since December 2012. It equates to about $1.62/gallon. That brought the 2013 Class III average to $17.90, up from $17.33 at this time a year ago and compares to $18.33 in 2011, $14.46 in 2010, and $11.03 in 2009. The December Class III futures contract settled today at $19.19/cwt.. January settled at $18.66; February, $18.00; and March at $17.55 per cwt.

The November Class IV price is $20.52/cwt., up 35¢ from October and $1.86 above a year ago. The Class IV average now stands at $18.83, up from $15.84 a year ago and compares to $19.24 in 2011, $15.10 in 2010, and $10.51 in 2009.

The 4-week, AMS-surveyed cheese price used in calculating today’s prices was $1.8612/lb., up 5.9¢ from October. Butter averaged $1.5205/lb., down 2.5¢. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.8892/lb., up 5.3¢, and dry whey averaged 58.31¢/lb., up 1¢.

Latest Commercial Disappearance Report Raising Eyebrows

November 29. 2013 — The Agriculture Department’s latest report of  dairy product commercial disappearance is raising USDAsome eyebrows. Ditto on its  latest milk cost of production data so we have elected not to report it. USDA  Economic Research Service economist William McBride, told DairyBusiness Update editor Dave Natzke  that they will update the data and issue revised October estimates next  month.

Third Quarter commercial  dairy product disappearance was very strong, according to data compiled by Jerry  Dryer, editor of the Dairy and Food  Market Analyst. Speaking in Friday’s DairyLine Radio broadcast, Dryer said  USDA’s data was confused at best but his findings are “supportive of current  milk prices.”

American cheese was up more  than 5 percent, he said, other cheese was up almost 4 percent, and butter was up  about 8 percent. The nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder wide of the business  was up 14 percent, which he attributes to exports, prompting the question, what  will exports look like next year?

Dryer also views the October Milk Production report as bullish  with output only being up around 1 percent. Compare that with commercial  disappearance for all milk and dairy products being up 3 1/2 percent in the  Third Quarter, he said “We’re burning through product faster than we’re  producing it.”

He adds that the October Cold Storage report “confirmed that in  spades for us.” There were big pull downs, not just in October, according to  Dryer, but, looking at June to October and, when we get November data, he  believes we will see a huge pull downs June through November, late summer and  all of fall which is “very supportive of milk prices,” he  concluded.

Lee Mielke, Mielke Market Weekly DairyBusiness Update Associate  Editor

October Dairy Stocks Down From Sept., But Up From 2012

November 22, 2013 — Preliminary data from the Agriculture Department’s monthly Cold Storage report issued this afternoon shows October 31, 2013 butter stocks stood at 173.8 million lbs., down a whopping 59.2 million lbs. or 25% from September but 28.7 million lbs. or 20% above October 2012.

American type cheese, at 629.2 million lbs., was down 31.8 million lbs., or 5% below September but 18.3 million lbs. or 3% above a year ago. The total cheese inventory amounted to 1.02 billion lbs., down 46 million lbs. or 4% from September but 28.6 million lbs. or 3% above a year ago. 

December Federal order Class I up 17¢

November 20, 2013 — The December Federal order Class I base milk price was announced by USDA this afternoon at $20.37/cwt., up 17¢ from November but $1.02 below December 2012, and USDAequates to about $1.75/gal. That brings the 2013 Class I average to $18.84/cwt., up from $17.46/cwt. in 2012, and compares to $19.13 in 2011, $15.35 in 2010, and $11.48 in 2009.

The 2-week AMS-surveyed butter price used to calculate the Class I value averaged $1.4916/lb., down 6.4¢ from November. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.8856/lb., up 5¢. Cheese averaged $1.8774/lb., up 8.4¢, and dry whey averaged 57.49¢/lb., down fractionally.