Archive for the ‘Government Reports’ Category

September Milk Production Up 4.1%

October 20, 2014 — U.S. dairy farmers got the message. The record high milk prices and low feed costs, pardon the pun, signaled them to “milk ‘em for all their worth.” They added cows and got more out of every one.

The Agriculture Department’s preliminary data issued this afternoon in its Milk Production report shows September output in the top 23 producing states at 15.49 billion pounds, up 4.1 percent from August 2013 and was the nineth consecutive month output was above a year ago. The 50-state total, at 16.47 billion pounds, was up 4.0 percent from a year ago.

Revisions reduced the original August 23-state estimate by 3 million pounds, now reported at 16.2 billion pounds, up 2.6 percent from a year ago.

August cow numbers in the 23 states, at 8.59 million head, were up 4,000 head from August and  78,000 more than a year ago. The 50-State count, at 9.27 million head, is up 2,000 from July and 59,000 more than a year ago.

August output per cow in the 23 states averaged 1,804 pounds, up 56 pounds from September 2013, and the highest production per cow for the month of September since the 23 State series began in 2003.

Looking at the July to September period, milk output totaled 51.1 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from the same period a year ago, and cow numbers, at 9.27 million head, were up 15,000 from the April to June quarter and 44,000 more than a year ago.

WASDE: 2014 & 2015 Milk Output Estimate

October 10, 2014 —  USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released October 10, reduced the milk production forecast for 2014 from last USDAmonth on slower growth in milk per cow. However, for 2015, the production forecast was raised as growth in output per cow is expected higher with relatively lower-priced feed.

• 2014 production and marketings were projected at 206.1 billion lbs. and 205.1 billion lbs., respectively. Both are down 200 million lbs. from last month’s projections. If realized, 2014 production and marketings would be up 2.4% from 2013.

• 2015 production and marketings were projected at 212.8 billion lbs. and 211.8 billion lbs., respectively, both are up 300 million lbs. from a month ago. If realized, 2015 production and marketings would be up about 3.25% from 2014.     Export forecasts for 2014 were lowered as U.S. dairy prices WASDE-534-5 are less competitive, but import forecasts were raised as relatively high U.S. prices encourage larger imports. The trade forecasts for 2015 were unchanged.

Butter, cheese, and whey prices for 2014 are raised from last month as domestic demand continues to support prices. Prices of these products are unchanged for 2015. However, the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are reduced as U.S. prices are expected to decline to increase the competitiveness of NDM exports.    The Class III price for 2014 is raised on stronger cheese and whey prices, but is unchanged for 2015. The Class IV price is raised for 2014 as higher butter prices more than offset the decline in NDM prices, but for 2015, the lower forecast NDM price results in a lower Class IV price. The all milk price is raised to $24.10 to $24.20 per cwt for 2014, and is lowered for 2015 to $18.95 to $19.85 per cwt.

Quick Glance Dairy price forecasts 

Estimated Forecast

Product 2013 2014 2015    

Class III ($/cwt) 17.99 22.40-22.50 17.25-18.15

Class IV ($/cwt) 19.05 22.40-22.60 17.45-18.45

All milk ($/cwt) 20.05 24.10-24.20 18.95-19.85

Cheese ($/lb.) 1.7683 2.1600-2.1700 1.6950-1.7850

Butter ($/lb.) 1.5451 2.2200-2.2500 1.6800-1.8000

NFDM ($/lb.) 1.7066 1.7600-1.7800 1.4500-1.5200

Dry whey (¢/lb.) 0.5902 0.6500-0.6600 0.5600-0.5900

California November Class 1 Plunges $1.76

October 10, 2014 — The California Department of Food and Agriculture announced the state’s November Class 1 milk prices this morning at $24.33 per hundredweight for the north CDFAand $24.60 for the south. Both are down $1.75 from last month’s record high but are $2.59 above November 2013.

The 10-month average now stands at $24.86 for the north, up from $20.16 at this time a year ago and $18.69 in 2012. The southern average now stands at $25.13, up from $20.43 a year ago and $18.96 in 2012. The November Federal order Class I base price will be announced by USDA on October 22.

MPP: Income Over Feed a Key Factor

October 3, 2014 — Enrollment is underway for dairy’s new Margin Protection Program (MPP). University of Illinois’ Mike Hutjens breaks it down for us in this week’s Feed Facts radio segment:

 

Federal Order Class III Milk Price Sets New Record High

October 1, 2014 — The Agriculture Department announced  the September Federal order benchmark Class III milk price this afternoon at a  record high $24.60 per hundredweight (cwt.), up $2.35 from August, $6.46 above  September 2013, $2.21 above the comparable California 4b price, and equates to  about $2.12 per gallon. That propels the 2014 Class III average to $22.72, up  from $17.76 at this time a year ago, $16.54 in 2012, and $18.28 in 2011. That’s  the good news. Class III futures portend declines ahead. The October Class III  contract settled this afternoon at $23.98; November, $21.12; and December,  $19.71.

The September Class IV price is  $22.58, down $1.31 from August but $3.15 above a year ago. The nine month Class  IV average now stands at $23.20, up from $18.49 a year ago, $15.23 in 2012, and  $19.48 in 2011.    The  NDSPR-surveyed cheese price used to calculate this month’s milk prices averaged  $2.3472 per pound, up 24 cents from August. Butter averaged $2.8525, up 33.2  cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.4718, down 31.7 cents, and dry whey averaged  67.25 cents, down 1.6 cents.

Meanwhile, the California Department of Food  and Agriculture announced the Golden State’s September Class 4b cheese milk  price at a record high $22.39 per hundredweight, up $2.43 from August and $5.74  above September 2013. That puts the 2014 Class 4b average at $20.53, up from  $16.10 at this time a year ago, $14.69 in 2012, and $16.48 in 2011.    The September 4a butter-powder  price is $22.72, down $1.11 from August but $3.25 above a year ago. The nine  month Class 4a average now stands at $23.09, up from $18.27 a year ago, $14.88  in 2012, and $19.24 in 2011.

Dairy Cows Delaying “Retirement”

September 25, 2014 — Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 3.80 billion pounds in August, down 10 percent from the 4.20 billion pounds produced in August 2013, according to the Agriculture Department’s Livestock Slaughter report issued this afternoon.

Beef production, at 2.02 billion pounds, was 10 percent below the previous year. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.50 million head, down 11 percent from August 2013. The average live weight was up 19 pounds from the previous year, at 1,329 pounds.

Veal production totaled 7.1 million pounds, 22 percent below August a year ago. Calf slaughter totaled 43,600 head, down 32 percent from August 2013. The average live weight was up 37 pounds from last year, at 277 pounds.

January to August 2014 commercial red meat production totaled 31.2 billion pounds, down 4 percent from 2013. Accumulated beef production was down 6 percent from last year, High milk prices and low feed prices are keeping dairy cows in the milking string. An estimated 229,000 dairy cows were slaughtered under Federal inspection in August, down 3,000 head from July and 37,000 below August 2013.    Looking at the first eight months of 2014, USDA estimates that 1.85 million head were “retired” from the dairy business, 233,000 head less than the same period a year ago.

August Milk Production Under the Microscope

September 22, 2014 — Analyzing Friday afternoon’s August Milk Production report data more closely, California milk production was up 1.4 percent on a 30 pound gain per cow although cow numbers were off 2,000 head. Wisconsin was up 1.2 percent, thanks to a 25 gain per cow but cow numbers were down 2,000 as well. Idaho was up 3.1 percent, thanks to a 40 pound gain per cow and 6,000 more cows. New York was up 2.7 percent on a 35 pound gain per cow and 5,000 more cows. Pennsylvania inched 0.6 percent higher on a 20 pound gain per cow but cow numbers were down 3,000 head. Minnesota was up 0.5 percent on a 25 pound gain per cow but cow numbers were down 5,000 from a year ago.

Oregon was the only state showing a decrease. The biggest gain was in Florida, up 8.4 percent, and Colorado, up 8 percent. From there we go to Michigan, up 6.7 percent on a 65 pound gain per cow and 13,000 more cows. Texas was next, up 6.2 percent on 30,000 more cows, though output per cow was down 10 pounds. Two other states we watch; New Mexico was up 2.7 percent on a 35 pound gain per cow and 5,000 more cows. Washington State was up 2.4 percent, thanks to 20 pounds more per cow and 4,000 more cows than a year ago.

Milk Production Report Fed the Bears or the Bulls?    High Ground Dairy’s Eric Meyer takes up that discussion in his Monday analysis of Friday’s August Milk Production report. He points out that, after a mild July and continued increases in milk cows took production close to the 4 per cent year-over-year growth mark, a more seasonally temperate August against a very mild month in 2013 only managed to achieve 2.5 per cent production growth this past month.

   While some may argue these results were bullish, we believe production was right in line with our expectations when looking at last year’s comparison and its anomaly against the rest of 2013. Unless the milking herd does not continue increasing (in this report, Aug DECLINED versus July’s revised figure), we fully expect a return to the 3.5 to 4 per cent (or higher) growth trend through AT LEAST the remainder of 2014 and quote possibly into Q1 2015.

As mentioned above, we are a bit concerned about the lack of monthly herd growth in August as USDA published 1,000 head declines in both the All-US and 23 selected state herd tallies from July. But we struggle to get to a monthly herd loss when looking at recent dairy cow slaughter data. During July ’14, dairy cow slaughter was 232,000 head, down 7.6 per cent from July ’13. And based on weekly dairy cow slaughter volumes published by USDA in August, the four week total from 4 Aug through the 30th, 216,500 dairy cows were culled which was a decline of 9.7 per cent from Aug ’13.

   We suspect that USDA will be busy revising August’s milking herd HIGHER as they have over the past five months.    To read more of Meyer’s analysis, write him at ericm@highgroundtrading.com.

 

August Milk Production Up 2.6%

September 19, 2014 — The Agriculture Department’s preliminary data issued this afternoon in its latest Milk Production report, shows August milk output in the top 23 producing states at 16.18 billion pounds, up 2.6 percent from August 2013. The 50-state total, at 17.22 billion pounds, was up 2.5 percent from a year ago.

Revisions reduced the original July 23-state estimate by 1 million pounds, now reported at 16.4 billion pounds, up 4 percent from a year ago.    August cow numbers in the 23 states, at 8.58 million head, down 1,000 from July but  60,000 more head than a year ago. The 50-State count, at 9.28 million head, is down 1,000 from July but 47,000 more than a year ago.

August output per cow in the 23 states averaged 1,885 pounds, down 26 pounds from July, but 35 pounds above August 2013, and the highest production per cow for the month of August since the 23 State series began in 2003.

Selected state data is posted below:

State          Cow #s                      Milk lbs./Cow        State Change vs.’13                    2013         2014            2013  2014

Arizona       188,000   193,000       1,830  1,860         +4.4%
California    1.78 mil    1.78             1,910 1,940         +1.4%
Colorado    137,000    145,000        2,095 2,135        +8.0%
Florida        123,000    123,000       1,459 1,570         +8.4%
Idaho          573,000    579,000       2,060  2,100        +3.1%
Illinois           97,000     95,000        1,550  1,580        Unchanged
Indiana       177,000    179,000       1,810  1,875        +5.0%
Iowa           208,000    208,000       1,850  1,860        +0.5%
Kansas       135,000    142,000       1,790  1,805        +5.8%
Mich.          381,000    394,000        2,050  2,115       +6.7%
Minn.          465,000   460,000        1,635  1,660        +0.5%
N Mex.        324,000   323,000        2,015  2,100       +3.8%
New York    610,000   615,000       1,885  1,920        +2.7%
Ohio            271,000   266,000       1,680  1,735        +1.5%
Oregon       123,000   123,000        1,750  1,740        -0.5% P
enn.          533,000   530,000        1,660  1,680       +0.6%
S Dakota       95,000    97,000        1,835  1,855        +3.4%
Texas          440,000   470,000       1,795  1,785        +6.2%
Utah              92,000     95,000       1,915  1,925        +4.0%
Vermont      135,000   132,000       1,630  1,725        +3.6%
Virginia          95,000    93,000        1,490  1,580        +3.5%
Wash.         268,000  272,000         2,040  2,060        +2.4%
Wisconsin   1.272 mil 1.27 mil         1,835  1,860       +1.2%

HighGround Dairy’s Eric Meyer points out in his initial analysis of the report that “August 2013 was extremely mild which brought exceptional milk production against challenging conditions for dairy producers. August 2014 brought normal summer heat to much of the country. These numbers were in line with HighGround’s expectations and we expect a return to the trend (+3.5% to 4% or more) in September.”

 

Doing the Math on Margin Protection

September 17, 2014 — Dairy analyst Bob Devenport with Stewart-Peterson, Inc. , joined us on today’s DairyLine to share more information about the new Margin Protection Program. Listen to the full interview here:

 

August FO Benchmark Milk Price $4.34 Above Year Ago

September 4, 2014 — The Agriculture Department announced the August Federal order Class III benchmark milk price this afternoon at $22.25 per hundredweight, up 65 cents from July, $4.34 above August 2013, $2.29 above the comparable California 4b cheese milk price, and equates to about $1.91 per gallon. And, there’s more to come next month as the September futures contract settled today at $24.22 before heading back down in its seasonal descent.

The 2014 Class III average now stands at $22.49, up from $17.72 at this time a year ago and $16.23 in 2012.    Looking beyond September, the October contract settled at $22.63; November, $20.74; and December, $19.66. That would result in a 2014 average of $22.26, up from $17.99 in 2013 and $17.44 in 2012.

The August Class IV price is $23.89, up 11 cents from July and $4.82 above a year ago. The Class IV eight-month average now stands at $23.28, up from $18.37 a year ago and $14.95 in 2012.

The four-week, NDSPR-surveyed cheese price average used to calculate this month’s Class prices was $2.1074 per pound, up 5.9 cents from July. Butter averaged $2.5206, up 17.3 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.7887, down 7.3 cents, and dry whey averaged 68.80 cents per pound, down fractionally. Meanwhile, cash butter set a new record high of $2.84 per pound this morning in Chicago.

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