Archive for the ‘Government Reports’ Category

July Milk Production Jumps 4%

August 19, 2014 — The Agriculture Department’s preliminary data issued this afternoon in its latest Milk Production report, shows July milk output in the top 23 producing states at 16.39 billion pounds, up 4 percent from July 2013. The 50-state total, at 17.45 billion pounds, was up 3.9 percent from a year ago. Sequestered 2013 data was reinstated in the July report.    Revisions added 50 million pounds to the original June 23-state estimate, now reported at 16.2 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from a year ago.    July cow numbers in the 23 states, at 8.58 million head, were up 6,000 from June and 56,000 more head than a year ago. The 50-State count, at 9.27 million head, is up 5,000 from June and 37,000 more than a year ago.    July output per cow in the 23 states averaged 1,911 pounds, up 18 pounds from June, 61 pounds above July 2013, and the highest production per cow for the month of July since the 23 State series began in 2003.

Selected state data is posted below:

State          Cow #s             Milk lbs./Cow        State Change vs.’13

Arizona       193,000                       1,960                      +8.9%

California    1.778 mil                      1,980                     +4.4%

Colorado    145,000                        2,135                     +7.6%

Florida        123,000                        1,710                     +5.0%

Idaho          580,000                        2,105                     +4.0%

Illinois           95,000                        1,660                     +5.3%

Indiana       179,000                        1,875                     +6.3%

Iowa           207,000                        1,890                     +1.6%

Kansas       142,000                        1,845                     +5.6%

Mich.          391,000                        2,120                      +8.2%

Minn.          460,000                      1,660                      -0.1% N

Mex.        323,000                       2,130                       -0.1%

New York    615,000                     1,935                      +4.8%

Ohio            266,000                     1,735                      +3.4%

Oregon       123,000                      1,750                      -0.9%

Penn.          530,000                     1,690                      +3.0%

S Dakota       97,000                     1,845                      +2.9%

Texas          470,000                     1,840                      +5.5%

Utah              95,000                     1,940                      +4.5%

Vermont      132,000                     1,730                      +4.1%

Virginia          92,000                    1,585                      +3.5%

Wash.          272,000                    2,070                      +2.9% W

Wisconsin    1.270 mil                     1,885                      +3.4%


July Dairy Products Report Revised

August 5, 2014 — Upon questioning of its data by HighGround Dairy’s Eric Meyer, USDA announced Monday that it would re-examine its July Dairy Products report issued Friday, due to a reporting error regarding cheese production in Idaho.    That revision came this afternoon. Meyer outlined the revision as follows:

  • June Cheddar volume revised 17.8 million pounds HIGHER, up 22% vs. June ’13 and 7.7% HIGHER than May ’14.
  • June Natural American volume revised 19.5 million pounds HIGHER, UP 14.5% vs. June ’14 and 9.9% ABOVE May ’14.
    ** It should read vs. June ’13!!!**


Revised June 2014 dairy product output, compared to June 2013 and year-to-date (Y-T-D) estimates included:

Total cheese: 942.12 million lbs., up 3.3%; Y-T-D 5.63 billion lbs., up 2.0%.

Total Italian cheese: 409.33 million lbs., up 4.4%; Y-T-D 2.46 billion lbs., up 4.6%.

Mozzarella: 326.91 million lbs., up 6.1%; Y-T-D 1.95 billion lbs., up 6.7%.

• American: 374.67 million lbs., up 3.2%; Y-T-D 2.24 billion lbs., up 0.3%

Cheddar: 273.86 million lbs., up 5.5%; Y-T-D 1.65 billion lbs., up 0.7%.

• Butter: 139.88 million lbs., down 0.2%; Y-T-D 981.85 million lbs., down 3.1%.

Dry milk powders – Nonfat dry milk, human, 147.99 million lbs., up 13.1%,        Y-T-D  911.9 million lbs., up 5.0%; and skim milk powders, 51.78 million lbs., down            11.1%, Y-T-D 295.54 million lbs., up 1.4%.

Dry whey (total): 79.1 million lbs., down 0.6%; Y-T-D 440.92 million lbs., down        12.4%.

Yogurt: 396.38 million lbs., down 0.2%; Y-T-D 2.44 billion lbs., up 2.7%.

You’ll recall yesterday’s posting from Meyer stated that Idaho’s June production volumes in both Cheddar and Natural American cheese were significantly lower than expectations. Month-over-month and year-over-year percentage declines reached anywhere from 28-40% in both categories – well beyond any historical statistical ranges. This put total June Idaho cheese production down over 21% from both the prior month and year. USDA issued its revision quite quickly.


Cattle Numbers Shrink But Heifers Being Retained

July 29, 2014 — The cattle herd is still shrinking but more heifers are being retained. Cattle supplies remain tight, but a possible expansion is on the horizon. That’s the gist of two cattle USDAreports released by USDA Friday.

The number of cattle in calves was 95 million head, the lowest number since the series began back in 1973, according to USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagam.

It’s not possible to make comparisons to 2013 numbers because of last year’s sequester, there was no July 1 Cattle Inventory report. However, numbers were down about three percent from two years ago.

Heifers being kept for beef-cow replacement are at 4.1 million head for July, down two percent from 2012. The number of heifers being kept for milk cow replacements was 3.9 million head, down about five percent from 2012.

The calf crop was 33.6 million head, which was down about two percent from 2012. It’s also the lowest calf crop since 1948.

Help For Rural Californians Suffering From Drought

by Tom Vilsack, Ag Secretary
July 19, 2014 — This week, I visited the small town of Cameron Creek Colony in Tulare County, California and saw firsthand the challenges drought poses, particularly for those living in rural communities.

About 10 percent of Cameron Creek Colony residents have no access to water because their wells have run dry. Still others have only intermittent access to water. Many are in danger

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack

of losing access to water permanently in the near future. One long-time resident told me that until this drought, she’d never worried about water. Now, worrying about having enough water is constantly on her mind.

Fortunately, USDA is able to help this community, and 73,000 residents living in other communities across California, through $9.7 million in grants to help other rural California communities that have experienced a significant decline in the quantity or quality of drinking water due to an emergency. The nearby city of Farmersville, California is receiving a $500,000 USDA grant to construct pipelines connecting Cameron Creek Colony to the Farmersville water main and linking residents to the city water system. This will provide much-needed relief and the surety of a stable water supply for those living in Cameron Creek Colony.

These grants are triple the amount we committed to when President Obama and I visited California in February. I am proud of the work USDA Rural Development staff in California have done to get this funding to those in need and the work they have done with municipal leaders in these rural communities to help residents, businesses and agricultural producers.

This drought is devastating for those who live, work and raise their families in much of rural California and the western United States. It is threatening the survival of whole communities and livelihoods of folks throughout the state. A UC Davis study released earlier this week reported that the drought will cause losses of $880 million in crop revenue, $203 million in dairy and other livestock value and additional groundwater pumping costs of $454 million. The total statewide economic cost of the 2014 drought is estimated to be a staggering $2.2 billion, with a loss of more than 17,000 seasonal and part time jobs.

As the drought continues, let me assure you that the Obama Administration and USDA are committed to increasing investments in the nation’s water infrastructure to mitigate the impact of climate change and to ensure that all Americans have adequate, safe and reliable water supplies. For more information, visit

June Milk Production Up 2%

July 18, 2014 — The Agriculture Department’s preliminary data issued this afternoon in its latest Milk Production report, shows June milk output in the top 23 producing states at 16.177 billion pounds, up 2 percent from cow_go2June 2013. The 50-state total, at 17.265 billion pounds, was up 1.9 percent from a year ago.

Revisions added 25 million pounds to the original May 23-state estimate, now reported at 16.9 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from a year ago.    June cow numbers in the 23 states, at 8.57 million head, were up 11,000 from May. Year ago data was not available due to the Sequester.

June output per cow in the 23 states averaged 1,888 pounds, down from 1,976 pounds in May, but is the highest production per cow for the month of June since the 23 State series began in 2003. Again, year ago data was not available due to the Sequester.    The Second Quarter, April to June period, saw U.S. milk output hit 52.8 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from the same period in 2013. The average number of milk cows during the quarter totaled 9.25 million head, up 39,000 from First Quarter, January to March, 2014.

Selected state data is posted below:

State          Cow #s             Milk lbs./Cow        State Change vs.’13

Arizona       193,000                       2,000                      +2.1%

California    1.779 mil                      1,995                     +1.7%

Colorado    145,000                        2,110                     +9.7%

Florida        123,000                        1,685                     +2.5%

Idaho          577,000                        2,045                     +2.1%

Illinois           95,000                        1,650                     +2.6%

Indiana       177,000                        1,830                     +1.6%

Iowa           207,000                        1,870                     +1.0%

Kansas       142,000                        1,845                     +7.4%

Mich.          386,000                        2,060                      +3.2%

Minn.          460,000                        1,655                      +0.1%

N Mex.        323,000                       2,130                      +1.3%

New York    615,000                       1,870                      +0.3%

Ohio            266,000                       1,695                      -1.5%

Oregon       125,000                        1,745                     +1.4%

Penn.          530,000                       1,665                      +0.2%

S Dakota       97,000                       1,825                     +5.4%

Texas          468,000                       1,850                     +8.3%

Utah              95,000                       1,890                     +4.0%

Vermont      131,000                       1,710                     +1.4%

Virginia          93,000                       1,600                    +4.2%

Wash.          274,000                       2,050                     +3.9%

Wisconsin    1.269 mil                     1,825                     +0.6%

WASDE: 2015 Milk Output Estimate Raised; 2014 Lowered

July 11, 2014 — USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released July 11, lowered the milk production forecast for 2014 from last month as slower growth in output per cow more than offsets a more rapid expansion in cow numbers. The forecast for 2015 is raised as higher milk prices and lower feed costs are expected to support more rapid growth in cow numbers and output per cow.

Export forecasts for 2014 are lowered on a fat basis but raised on a skim-solids basis. High domestic butter prices are expected to limit export opportunities, but nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP) exports are expected to remain strong. For 2015, no change is forecast to fat-basis exports, but strength in NDM/SMP sales will help support higher skim-solids exports.

Product prices are forecast higher for 2014 with strength in butter prices expected to carry into 2015. Despite increased production, robust domestic demand and stronger NDM/SMP exports will support prices.    Class III and Class IV prices for 2014 are raised on stronger component product prices and the Class IV price forecast for 2015 is raised reflecting strength in butter prices. The all milk price is forecast at $23.25 to $23.55 per cwt for 2014, and $19.75 to $20.75 per cwt for 2015.

• 2014 production and marketings were projected at 205.9 billion lbs. and 204.9 billion lbs., respectively. Both are down 200 million lbs. from last month’s projections. If realized, 2014 production and marketings would be up 2.3% from 2013.

• 2015 production and marketings were projected at 212.4 billion lbs. and 211.4 billion lbs., respectively. Both are up 300 million lbs. from a month ago. If realized, 2015 production and marketings would be up about 3.2% from 2014.     Fat-basis exports are forecast lower on increased competition from traditional exporters, primarily in butterfat markets. Continued strength in nonfat dry milk (NDM) will help limit declines in skim-solids exports. Fat-basis import forecasts are expected to be about the same as 2014 but skim-solids imports will be lower. With higher domestic production, cheese, butter, NDM, and whey prices are forecast lower. Both Class III and Class IV prices are forecast lower. The all milk price is forecast at $19.70 to $20.70 per cwt for 2015.

Fat basis imports are forecast lower while skimsolids imports are higher. Exports are raised on stronger sales of NDM, butterfat and cheese. Butter and whey prices are raised from last month while NDM is lower. Cheese is unchanged but the range is

narrowed. The Class III price is raised on higher whey prices. Class IV is up as higher prices for butter more than offset reduced prices for NDM. The all milk price is forecast to average $22.70 to $23.00 per cwt.


Dairy price forecasts 

Estimated Forecast

Product 2013 2014 2015    

Class III ($/cwt) 17.99 21.00-21.30 16.95-17.95

Class IV ($/cwt) 19.05 21.95-22.35 18.70-19.80

All milk ($/cwt) 20.05 23.25-23.55 19.75-20.75

Cheese ($/lb.) 1.7683 2.0300-2.0600 1.6700-1.7700

Butter ($/lb.) 1.5451 1.9650-2.0250 1.6500-1.7800

NFDM ($/lb.) 1.7066 1.8350-1.8650 1.6050-1.6750

Dry whey (¢/lb.) 0.5902 0.6350-0.6550 0.5500-0.5800

WASDE Crop Update    Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) are raised with increases for corn and sorghum beginning stocks and higher expected sorghum production. Corn production is projected 75 million bushels lower based on harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report. The national average corn yield remains projected at a record 165.3 bushels per acre.       Favorable early July crop conditions and weather support an outlook for record yields across most of the Corn Belt, however, for much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July. At the projected 13,860 million bushels, this year’s crop remains just 65 million bushels below last year’s record.

Corn use changes for 2014/15 are limited to a 50-million-bushel reduction in expected feed and residual use based on the lower production projection and higher projected sorghum feed and residual use. Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, exports, and ending stocks are also raised for 2014/15 with sorghum production projected up 50 million bushels on the higher area reported in the Acreage report. Corn ending stocks are projected up 75 million bushels with a higher carryin and lower feed and residual use more than offsetting the small acreage-driven decline in production. The projected range for the season-average corn price is lowered 20 cents on each end to $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel.

Lower farm prices are also projected for sorghum, barley, and oats. A number of 2013/14 feed grain supply and use changes are made this month reflecting June 1 stocks estimates from the June 30 Grain Stocks and based on final marketing-year barley and oats trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Projected corn feed and residual use is lowered 125 million bushels based on lower-than-expected March-May disappearance as indicated by the June 1 stocks.

Corn used to produce ethanol is projected 25 million bushels higher based on the pace of ethanol production to date and lower projected sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, most of which is for ethanol.

Sorghum exports are projected up 10 million bushels reflecting continued steady export sales and the large 2013/14 outstanding sales balance. Projected 2013/14 farm prices for corn and sorghum are lowered this month as favorable weather for developing 2014 crops reduce summer price prospects.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 7.0 million tons higher with larger beginning stocks for the United States, Brazil, and China and larger production for China, the EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Serbia. Lower corn production for the United States and lower corn, barley, and oats production for Canada partly offset this month’s increases in world coarse grain output. World barley production is higher with larger crops expected in Ukraine and Russia.

Foreign corn production for 2014/15 is raised 1.7 million tons. China corn production is up 2.0 million tons on higher expected area. China 2013/14 corn production is also raised, up 0.8 million tons based on the latest government estimates that include higher area. EU 2014/15 corn production is raised 0.4 million with larger crops expected in Germany and France. Serbia corn production is also raised 0.3 million tons. Partly

offsetting is a 0.9-million-ton reduction in Canada corn reflecting the lower planted area recently reported by Statistics Canada. Brazil corn production is unchanged for 2014/15, but raised 2.0 million tons for 2013/14 based on higher area indications for second crop corn. Global 2014/15 corn trade is nearly unchanged with a reduction for Canada exports partly offset by an increase for Serbia. For 2013/14, world corn trade is raised with higher imports for the EU and South Korea more than offsetting a reduction for China. Corn exports for 2013/14 are raised for Canada, the EU, and Russia. Global corn consumption is lowered slightly for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 mostly reflecting the lower U.S. feed and residual use projections.

Global 2014/15 corn ending stocks are projected 5.4 million tons higher with increases for China, Brazil, and the United States more than offsetting the Canada reduction.

U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 113.1 million tons, up 5.0 million tons with higher soybean production accounting for most of the change. Soybean production is projected at a record 3,800 million bushels, up 165 million due to increased harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 84.1 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is 3.6 million above the June forecast. The soybean yield is projected at 45.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Soybean supplies are 180 million bushels above last month’s forecast due to higher beginning stocks and production.

Soybean crush is projected at 1,755 million bushels, up 40 million reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance in line with adjustments for 2013/14 and higher U.S. soybean meal exports that offset lower projected exports for India. Soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 50 million bushels to 1,675 million reflecting record U.S. supplies and lower prices.

U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 415 million bushels, up 90 million. If realized, projected stocks would be the highest since 2006/07.

Prices for soybeans and products for 2014/15 are all reduced. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $350 to $390 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil price range is projected at 36 to 40 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 521.9 million tons, up 5.8 million from last month with soybeans and rapeseed accounting for most of the change. Global soybean production is projected at 304.8 million tons, up 4.8 million mostly due to higher production in the United States. Higher soybean production is also projected for Russia and Ukraine, both reflecting higher harvested area. Lower soybean production for India resulting from reduced harvested area partly offsets these gains. Harvested area is reduced based on planting delays resulting from the slow development of the monsoon in the main soybean producing states.

Read the complete WASDE at:

Source:?USDA WASDE report, July 11, 2014

EPA’s Guidance Hits Rough Water

July 10, 2014 — The National Milk Producers Federation has asked the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to withdraw recent guidance concerning when farmers must seek Clean Water Act permits for a long list of normal farming activities near wetlands.

NMPF, the voice of more than 32,000 dairy farmers in Washington, D.C., said the EPA’s proposal could have the perverse effect of discouraging water conservation, by changing the long-standing relationship between farmers and the Agriculture Department’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). NMPF said the guidance changes NRCS’s role from that of a conservation partner to an enforcer of the Clean Water Act on EPA’s behalf.

“Our concern is if this EPA guidance were to stand the way it’s been proposed, the NRCS would no longer be a place where dairy farmers and others could go for conservation

Chris Galen, NMPF

Chris Galen, NMPF

advice,” NMPF’s Chris Galen reported on a recent DairyLine Radio program. “NRCS would instead become an enforcer for the EPA and would ultimately set back conservation efforts.”

The EPA guidance, officially called an Interpretive Rule, was issued in March. It says producers are only exempt from needing Clean Water Act permits for more than 50 routine farming practices if they comply with detailed NRCS technical conservation standards. Until now, these standards have been voluntary, and the farming practices exempt from the permit process.

“Until now, NRCS has been the place producers could go for conservation advice, while EPA was charged with ensuring compliance with the Clean Water Act,” said Jamie Jonker, NMPF’s Vice President for Sustainability & Scientific Affairs. “The cooperative relationship with NRCS made it more likely farmers would adopt water conservation practices.

“Unfortunately,” Jonker said, “the interpretive rule moves NRCS into an enforcement role and, in the process, could set back conservation efforts.”

In its comments, NMPF used harvesting hay as an example. Under the Interpretive Rule, farmers harvesting hay may be exempt from needing a CWA permit only if they follow NRCS Conservation Practice Standard No. 511:  four pages of criteria covering timing of the harvest, moisture content of the hay, length of the cut hay, stubble height and much more.

“Many dairy farmers harvest hay without any reference to NRCS standards,” said Jonker.  “Will these farmers now be forced to comply with Standard No. 511? If so, many will simply choose not to work with the NRCS. As a result, there will be less water conservation on farms, not more.”

Jonker noted that NMPF has drawn up a detailed environmental handbook based on NRCS standards but tailored specifically to dairy farmers. “Under the IR, producers who follow the handbook apparently will not qualify for a permit exemption,” Jonker said. “Having invested time and money in producing the handbook, NMPF is now forced to ask if it was worth it to try to do the right thing.”

Additional points in the NMPF comments:

• While EPA argues that meeting the NRCS standards is still voluntary, in practice it is mandatory, since failure to comply may expose farmers to legal liability.
• More than 100 farming practices covered by NRCS standards but not listed the IR are left under a “cloud of suspicion” and further expose farmer to legal liability.
• As a major policy change, the IR should have been issued as a proposed regulation, with public comments in advance of approval, rather than as guidance that is immediately applicable.

“NMPF and its members are committed to protecting U.S. waterways through voluntary efforts and regulatory compliance with the Clean Water Act,” NMPF said. “(But) the IR will have the perverse impact of harming the longstanding trust and cooperative relationship between producers and NRCS.  Consequently, water quality improvements will be adversely impacted.”

Established initially the 1930s, the NRCS provides voluntary help to farmers who want to conserve the resources on their farms.

In May, NMPF urged the Environmental Protection Agency to allow more time to examine a controversial draft regulation expanding the waterways subject to regulation under the federal Clean Water Act. That request was granted on June 10th.

June FO Benchmark Milk Price Drops $1.21

July 2, 2014 — The Agriculture Department announced the June Federal order Class III benchmark milk price this afternoon at $21.36 per hundredweight, down $1.21 from May but $3.34 above June 2013, $2.29 above California’s comparable 4b cheese milk price, and equates to about $1.84 per gallon. The half-year Class III average now stands at $22.68, up from $17.74 at this time a year ago and $15.90 in 2012.    The June Class IV price is $23.13, up 48 cents from May and $4.25 above a year ago. Its 2014 average now stands at $23.09, up from $18.17 a year ago and $14.90 in 2012.

The four-week, NDPSR-surveyed cheese price used in calculating this month’s prices was $2.0358 per pound, down 13.5 cents from May. Butter averaged $2.1874, up 14 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.8633, down 1.4 cents, and dry whey averaged 67.89 cents per pound, up fractionally from May.

USDA’s latest Dairy Outlook

June 18, 2014 – As it always does, USDA’s monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, issued Wednesday, mirrored dairy projections contained in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued June 11. Milk and dairy product prices remain near record levels on continued strong demand and forecasts were raised only slightly in June from May. However, higher expected production next year lowers milk and dairy product prices in 2015 compared with 2014.

June projected corn prices were lowered slightly from May to $4.45 – $4.65 per bushel for 2013/14, based on reported prices to date. The 2014/15 corn price is forecast below current year prices but is unchanged from the May projection of $3.85 – $4.55 per bushel. The soybean meal price for 2013/14 is estimated at $485 per ton. The 2014/15 soybean meal price forecast is unchanged from May but is expected to be sharply lower than this year at $355 – $395 per ton.    The preliminary alfalfa price was reported in the May Agricultural Prices report at $224 per ton; higher than April’s reported price and about the same as May a year ago.

Consequently, the milk-feed price ratio is likely to remain at a level that would support expansion in the dairy herd in 2015.

Last month’s forecast of herd expansion in the second half of the year was based on strong milk prices and moderating feed costs. The June forecast is unchanged from May and cow numbers are placed at 9.26 million head for the current year. Cow

numbers for 2015 are forecast up slightly from 2014 to 9.34 million head, also unchanged from the May forecast. Current-year output per cow is lowered fractionally from May to 22,270 pounds per cow and is based on lower expected output per cow in the second quarter. Next year’s forecast of output per cow is unchanged from May and is up nearly 2 percent from the 2014 projection. The June milk production forecast for 2014 rounds to 206.1 billion pounds, unchanged from May. For 2015, milk production is unchanged from May at 212.1 million pounds. The likely stronger milk-feed price ratios for both this year and next should presage expanded year-over-year production.

Fats basis 2014 milk equivalent imports were raised in June to 3.5 billion pounds, but are expected to slip to 3.4 billion pounds in 2015. Skims-solids basis milk equivalent imports are raised this month to 5.6 billion pounds for the current year and to 5.2 billion pounds for 2015. The forecast increases from May are based on higher imports of food preparation items, whey products, and, to a lesser extent, casein and milk protein concentrates.

June forecast fats-basis exports for 2014 are increased this month from May to 13.4 billion pounds and to 13 billion pounds for 2015. Butter exports have retreated as U.S. prices have become less competitive on the global market. The butter decline was more than offset by continued strong cheese exports. The higher June forecasts are expected to carry over into 2015. However on a year-over-year basis, the 2015 forecast export decline is based on expected strong foreign competition.

Exports on a skims-solids basis are increased to 39.4 billion pounds for 2014 and are unchanged at 38.6 billion pounds for next year. Higher skimmed milk powder, whey, and cheese are the basis of the higher skim-solids export number this year.

Although the United States is expected to remain competitive in the global market, foreign competition will likely lower exports on a year-over-year basis in 2015.

Milk production is expected to increase in 2015 compared with this year. Lower feed prices will improve the profit outlook for producers next year. Continued strong demand, both foreign and domestic, will moderate price declines in 2015.    To view the entire report log on to:,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook.aspx.


Quarterly and annual milk prices and projections

Year           All milk         Class III         Class IV






















  Q2            19.57           18.04          18.62
  Q3            19.60           17.81          19.13
  Q4            21.50           18.67          20.74
Year            20.05           17.99          19.05


  Q1            24.53           22.61          23.10
  Q2 24.40-24.60 22.65-22.85 22.95-23.25
Q3 21.95-22.45 19.65-20.15 20.80-21.40
Q4 20.85-21.65 18.40-19.20 19.05-19.95
Year* 22.90-23.30 20.80-21.20 21.45-21.95
  Q1            20.50-21.50 16.45-17.45 18.05-19.15
Year* 19.75-20.75 16.95-17.95 18.65-19.75


2012    2013    2014  1st      2nd  3rd     4th     2015  1st

Milk Output (bil.lbs.)  200.5   201.2   206.1  51.1  52.8  50.9  51.3  212.1  52.5

Cow #s (mil)                 9.23     9.22    9.26   9.22   9.24  9.27  9.29   9.34    9.30

July FO Class I Milk Price Up 16 Cents

June 18, 2014 – The Agriculture Department announced the July Federal order Class I base milk price Wednesday at $23.02 per hundredweight, up 16 cents from June, $4.11 above July 2013, and equates to about $1.98 per gallon.

The seven month average now stands at $23.02, up from $18.32 at this time a year ago and compares to $16.34 in 2012 and $18.55 in 2011.    The two-week, NDPSR-surveyed, butter price used in calculating this month’s Class I value was $2.1845 per pound, up 16.7 cents from June. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.8526, down 2.4 cents. Cheese averaged $2.0334, down 17 cents, and dry whey averaged 67.67 cents per pound, up fractionally.