April 10, 2014 — USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates report released Wednesday, raised projected 2014 milk production estimates from a month earlier as strong returns are expected to encourage a more rapid expansion in cow numbers and increased milk per cow. Fat-basis exports were raised on higher sales of cheese and butter, but the skim-solids export forecast was lowered on weaker-than-expected nonfat dry milk (NDM) sales. Skim-solid imports were reduced slightly due to lower imports of milk protein concentrate and casein.
• 2014 production and marketings were projected at 206.1 billion lbs. and 205.2 billion lbs., respectively, up about 400 million lbs. and 500 million lbs. respectively from last month’s projections. If realized, 2014 production and marketings would be up 2.4% from 2013.
Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, and whey were higher, supported by strong demand and price strength to date. However, the NDM price was unchanged at the midpoint as export demand is weaker than expected. Class III and Class IV prices were raised on higher product prices. The all milk price was forecast at $22.55-23.05 per cwt.
Dairy Price Forecasts Estimated Product Forecasts
Product 2012 2013 2014
Class III ($/cwt) 17.44 17.99 20.40-20.90
Class IV ($/cwt) 16.01 19.05 21.05-21.65
All milk ($/cwt) 18.53 20.01 22.55-23.05
Cheese ($/lb.) 1.7076 1.7683 1.9850-2.0350
Butter ($/lb.) 1.5943 1.5451 1.7600-1.8400
NFDM ($/lb.) 1.3279 1.7066 1.8300-1.8700
Dry whey (¢/lb.) 59.35 0.5902 0.6150-0.6450
WASDE Offers Lots to Feed Off Of
U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected lower this month, according to today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, with reductions for corn, barley, and oats. A 125-million-bushel increase in projected corn exports reduces corn ending stocks by the same amount. Continued strong export sales and a rising
weekly shipment pace for U.S. corn during March support the higher expected export level as does an increase in projected global corn demand.
The 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents at the midpoint with the projected range also narrowed to $4.40 to $4.80 per bushel, compared with $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel last month.
U.S. soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 3.49 billion bushels, up 30 million
on increased imports. Imports are projected at a record 65 million bushels based on trade reported through February and prospective large shipments from South America during the second half of the marketing year. Soybean exports for 2013/14 are increased 50 million bushels to 1.58 billion reflecting record year-to-date shipments and large outstanding sales.
Despite relatively high prices and record harvests in South America, U.S. exports have remained strong, especially to China, where imports from the United States have already exceeded the previous marketing-year record. The soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.685 billion with lower domestic soybean meal consumption more than offsetting a small increase in projected soybean meal exports. Seed use
is raised in line with the record plantings reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, while residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 135 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.
Projected prices for soybeans and soybean products are all raised this month. The projected range for the season-average soybean price is raised 5 cents at the midpoint to 12.50 to $13.50 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are projected at 38 to 40 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $460 to $490 per short ton, up 5 dollars at the midpoint.
WASDE Beef Update/Prices Remain Strong
The 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production was lowered from last month in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production. For beef, production is forecast higher as lower forecast slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher slaughter in the second half. The larger forecast second-half slaughter reflects larger placements of cattle during the first half.
The beef import forecast for 2014 is raised from last month as demand for processing-grade beef remains strong and the export forecast is raised on continued strong sales to Asian markets.
Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month, reflecting continued price strength for fed cattle. Source:?USDA WASDE report, April 9, 2014