May 14, 2013 — The cash dairy markets started the week in a slide, with block cheese losing 7 cents the first two days of this week. Stewart-Peterson’s Matt Mattke gives us some insight in this DairyBusiness Radio Podcast:
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April 9, 2013 — The cash dairy markets continue to show improvement. We asked Matt Mattke from Stewart-Peterson, Inc. the reason for increase on Tuesday’s DairyLine program.
March 12, 2013 — Cheese prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are expected to rise in the coming months. Matt Mattke, Sr. Dairy Market Strategist with Stewart Peterson shares his insights on Tuesday’s DairyLine broadcast.
(August 28, 2012) The CME cheese market remains quiet and could be trading sideways for a while according to Matt Mattke, market 360 advisor with Stewart-Peterson, Inc.
“The tough part right now is just how our prices are sitting relative to the world,” he said. U.S. Cheddar is pricing close to a 22-cent premium over world prices like Oceana Cheddar.
Milk and cheese futures are currently priced in the $1.90’s and the cash market is having a tough time getting to $1.90.
August has been a good month for Class III milk prices, up 80 cents to $1.00 from where we were sitting in July. It has stalled recently with fourth quarter prices getting up to $20.25 to $20.50.
October, November, and December milk of this year is currently trading at about 12 cent premiums over cash cheese, according to Mattke.
“It’s going to be hard to see where that next leg of upside is going to come unless the cash market starts to pick up momentum,” he said. “Or we see the whey market, which has been extremely quiet recently.”
(July 17, 2012) Both dairy revenue and expenses are expected to increase at a parabolic rate, according to dairy market 360 advisor Matt Mattke with Stewart-Peterson Inc.
The dairy cash and futures prices have shown some strength recently, but we are also expecting a rise in feed prices. Mattke provided DairyLine some details about the recent market activity in this podcast.
(June 12, 2012) The CME cheese market showed more strength today with blocks gaining 3 1/2-cents to $1.65. Barrel cheese gained 4 1/4-cents to $1.5650. This was expected according to Matt Mattke, Stewart-Peterson dairy market 360 advisor.
“However the upside we were waiting for did come in the month of May,” he said. “That’s on track as far as the upward movement we’ve had in both cash cheese as well as in Class III milk.”
Prices may hold because the demand for cheese is still doing very well. “We had good exports for the month of April, we saw a lot of products have double-digit year-over-year gains,” Mattke said.
The recent weekly cheese inventories are showing an abnormal trend. “Cheese at select cheese storage facilities hit a new low for 2012 falling below the 130 million pound mark for the first time this year,”
It is looking favorable that these prices can hang on to the recent gains, according to Mattke.
”The last three years at this time we had already seen those weekly numbers on the rise,” he said. “So to see them decline at this time of year is a good sign and it may be a testament to just how strong that demand side to the equation is and maybe we have gotten by that supply hump.”
He said the one thing we should be watching out for is if prices can make some new highs in the month of July because it’s not unusual to get a nice rally in May and June.
“If these gains can’t be built upon in the first week of July, then seasonally we are at a point where prices could take a little bit of a breather and start drifting lower again.”
(May 22, 2012) The April milk production report was better than expected with the rate of growth year-over-year at 3.3%. Cow numbers remain up, but milk production growth was not as strong compared to the last few months.
“We had record exports in the month of March for cheese as well as total dairy product exports,” Stewart Peterson’s Matt Mattke reported. “Commercial disappearance through February did well and we are moving a lot of cheese on a weekly basis.”
Lately, the brunt of the weekly sales has been between 20 to 23 million pounds, which is really good, according to Mattke.
“The demand side of the equation is definitely doing well,” he said. “Over the last 25-30 weeks… we have had the strongest period of cheese sales since 2010.”
Despite demand, dairy producers are still battling high feed costs and it’s the supply side that is creating an overhang on prices and keeping them limited.
”We are going to need to see some indications here that supplies has hit a seasonal peak before we are likely to get a ton of additional upside” he concluded.
(December 13, 2011) It appears we are entering the seasonal doldrums for cheese prices. Historically, December is typically not a strong month, and we are seeing prices go down this week. CME block cheese ended Tuesday down 3 ½-cents to $1.60, while the barrels dropped another 1 ¾-cents to $1.5550.
“Sometimes you can have that first week of December be a positive week, but when you look at the second, third, fourth and, whenever we have a fifth week in December, those typically are down weeks for cheese,” Matt Mattke, Stewart-Peterson dairy market 360 advisor said on Tuesday’s DairyLine. Mattke says there is some silver lining to the end of year low prices. “We have in the past seen some pretty decent rebounds in the month of January.”
“The $1.58 to $1.60 level is a pretty important level for us to hold above,” he said. “If we don’t that’s where we could see additional downside testing $1.54, or maybe even going down to $1.48 would be the short-term risk.” We’re already down over 42 cents from the November high, so the $1.58 to $1.60 level probably has a pretty good chance of holding in the near term,” he said.
Trading picked up Tuesday after nothing traded Monday. Three loads of block traded hands and two of barrel. Last week was one of the most active trading weeks for barrels with 39 trades.
Mattke is also keeping his eye on the whey market, which has had a phenomenal year, rallying from the 32-cent level all the way up to the mid 60’s.
“We haven’t seen much of a setback this year,” he said. ‘It’s been a pretty quiet, very steady and controlled rise.” Whey reached as high as the mid 70’s in 2007. “So keep an eye on that market just because every penny they whey goes up translates into six cents more on the milk price.”
The whey market may continue to hold steady, move higher, or have a potential setback, so that’s a market to be keeping an eye on here in the weeks ahead.
(November 29, 2011) CME Cheese prices slipped the week of November 29th. Block cheese lost 4-3/4 cents, closing Friday at $1.74. Four carloads traded hands. Barrel cheese lost 12-3/4 cents on the week and closed Friday at $1.7125. Eight loads traded. Cash butter gained two cents to $1.63 on 56 trades for the week.
Matt Mattke, Market 360 dairy advisor at Stewart-Peterson, spoke to DairyLine after the markets closed Monday, 11/28/11.